As a career strategic analyst and defense planner, including for Australias Defense Department, I have spent decades studying how a war could start, how it would play out and the military and nonmilitary operations that China is prepared to conduct. And that would leave Australias critical fuel supply links to Singapore desperately exposed. China has built the world's largest navy and has become increasingly assertive over contested areas such as the South China Sea. The United States might be forced to confront the shocking realization that the industrial muscle instrumental in victories like that in World War II President Franklin Roosevelts concept of America as the arsenal of democracy has withered and been surpassed by China. Maybe, that explained why President Bush and Prime Minister Howard, from the right of politics, and Mr Blair from the left of politics, shared the view about the need for the invasion.". Chinas 1264 warplanes, meanwhile, are based in China. Of all the uncertainty and conflict in the world at moment, the repercussions of Australia joining the US in any war with China over the status of Taiwan or any other issue issurely one of the most important discussions we must have. "If they think the blockade is failing, they may declare victory by pointing to the damage already inflicted or they might escalate to attacking US forces supporting Taiwan. Ukrainian, Romanian, and US Army Special . Six large amphibious vessels have been launched, three since 2015, and a third aircraft carrier, larger than its predecessors, will soon be completed. If the US went to war with China, who would win? - Nikkei Asia The decision to go to war would not require a public discussion. Taiwan is slightly bigger than the state of Maryland; if you recall how quickly Afghanistan and Kabul fell to the Taliban in 2021, you start to realize that the takeover of Taiwan could happen relatively quickly. "Australia has been there before. How this young Indigenous artist is taking inspiration from anime and manga to celebrate his own culture, NBA star Ja Morant suspended, 'takes full responsibility' for nightclub gun video, Andrew Tate shuts down cancer rumors, is accused of recruiting politicians to his cause, 'If carers are going to survive, they need this', says resident pioneering dementia respite care centre. India and Pakistan take pains to avoid such escalation. The People's Liberation Army is capable of "substantially subduing" the US Navy in the waters around China, a Communist Party-owned newspaper boasts. There are plenty of nations with grievances against China for its South China Sea policy. The number of inhabitants is 1,444,390,177. The military scenario alone is daunting: China would probably launch a lightning air, sea and cyber assault to seize control of key strategic targets on Taiwan within hours, before the United States and its allies could intervene. So to contribute to this discussion, Ive sought analysis from four of Australias most experienced military strategists and asked them exactly what Australias involvement in a war with China could look like. All times AEDT (GMT +11). Reinforcing Taiwan would likely involve long and bloody battles at sea as underarmed escorts struggle to protect the few but highly vulnerable available transports. If we lost a single frigate, that's around 170 lives in an afternoon. Rockets figure heavily in Beijings arsenal. With China's rise and democracy's decline, what will the global order look like in 2050? In the event of a war: what would Japan, the Philippines, South Korea and Australia do? The US will pursue the following war aims: 1. It can impose costs on our forces. China produces more ships, steel and smartphones than any other country and is a world leader in the production of chemicals, metals, heavy industrial equipment and electronics the basic building blocks of a military-industrial economy. Fishing boats could push into ancestral territory, backed up by armed coast guard vessels. It would be relatively easy for China to establish a credible air and sea exclusion zone around Taiwan, and thereby put immense pressure on the Taiwanese to accept Beijings terms. What war between China and the US looks like | news.com.au Australia The US would be challenged by a powerful Chinese fleet in the region. It is for that reason that some commentators, including me, do not think that China is likely to initiate an offensive war in the near future, until it is sure that it has enough mass to win quickly. "Even in Australia, with our record of setting up the basics of a rules-based order, governments have sometimes overlooked the provisions of the rules-based order, when it does not suit them. As with the Gulf War in 2003, Washington is always keen to enlist as many countries as possible to spread the cost and political risk. But the Chinese are prepared to wage a much broader type of warfare that would reach deep into American society. It has been growing by 6-8 per cent each year for the past five years but according to defence intelligence agency Janes, US spending remains miles ahead at $759 billion. Here are some tips. Get a note direct from our foreign correspondents on whats making headlines around the world. "If we joined the fight, or allowed US forces involved to operate from bases here, then there would be a clear chance that Australia would face direct attack from Chinese long-range forces. "A cross-strait invasion is the most dangerous scenario from China's perspective. The 100,000-strong Rocket Force was made a separate branch of the Peoples Liberation Army in 2015. "As a continental power, China has a distinct preference for land warfare. "The question requires urgent, high-profile debate in parliament and among the wider public. I draw here an important difference between politicians and statesmen. China had 55 small war ships in 2020, more than double the number it had five years ago. Behm says the impact on Australia of a war with China would be "profoundly and devastatingly different" from any other war this country has participated in since World War II. The US Arleigh Burke-class destroyers hold 96. It isn't Ukraine. Credit:Getty. "A China-US war over Taiwan would begin as an air-sea war, with China seeking to impose punitive costs on the US Navy and such US Air Force units as were able to operate. China is closing the gap, but will they be able to defeat America by the beginning of the next decade. No doubt Australian passions would run high. In 1947 with setting up of the United Nations, after the catastrophes of both world wars and the more limited wars in the intervening years, we tried to build a system of managing international relationships without the recourse to war. Principles matter, he writes. With that in mind, I sought the views of four of Australia's most experienced military strategists, with 100 years of high-level military and strategic experience between them,to discuss what joining the US in a war with China could mean for Australians. Destroy the offensive capability of the PLAN and People . Professor Clinton Fernandesis a former intelligence officer in the Australian military and now Professor of International and Political Studies at the University of New South Wales. AEST = Australian Eastern Standard Time which is 10 hours ahead of GMT (Greenwich Mean Time), abc.net.au/news/china-us-war-what-would-conflict-look-like-taiwan/101998772, Help keep family & friends informed by sharing this article. China is largely trying to take territorial control, which makes east Asia a likely location for trouble. The Australian Imperial Force (AIF) was of marginal utility. Our economy would be paralysed as all trade with China and other major East Asian partners would stop dead and may not resume for a long time. Allan Behm, who is now head of the international and security program at The Australia Institute, says were the US and China to go to war over the next five to 10years, the best one might envisage for the US is a stalemate. "Washington would expect Australia to contribute the full range of our air and naval forces to the maximum extent of our capability, including surface warships, submarines, F-18 and F-35 fighters, P-8 maritime patrol aircraft, airborne early warning aircraft and tanker aircraft.. Beyond 10 years, who knows? "Were the US and China to go to war over the next five to 10 years, the best scenario one might envisage for the US is a stalemate. Chinas nuclear weapons are estimated to number between 200 and 350, a mere 5 per cent of the United States arsenal, but potentially enough to deter broader conflict through the prospect of mutual destruction. While most members voted in favor of the six U.N. General Assembly resolutions passed since last . We seem incapable of arresting trends towards existential climate change threats. "Unlike the Taliban, China has an air force. Which is why Beijing would be so determined to secure them. This week, China suspended the China-Australia Strategic Economic Dialogue a diplomatic mechanism for trade talksand accused Australia of "disrupt [ing] the normal exchanges and cooperation . The four have more than 100 years of high-level military and strategic experience between them. It has additional radars and air defence weapons on outposts in the South China Sea, which extend its IADS zone out even further, although these latter systems can be destroyed by the US. Washington and Beijing are locked in an intense strategic battle. From Taiwan, the PLA could also pivot south, effectively enveloping the Philippines and giving Beijing easier access to the resource-rich Benham Rise, Dr Davis writes. Chinas leaders could discreetly offer negotiations to Taiwans leaders during a blockade before the risky step of ordering an amphibious invasion, Professor Fernandes says. But it has always seemed to me that China, if it decides on military action to force "reunification"is more likely to mount a blockade than an invasion. Vietnam and Iraq were illegal wars, with the US Administration(s) lying to their citizens and their allies about the strategic necessity and the morality of the use of armed force. The Pentagon views China as the "pacing threat," Gen. John "Mike" Murray, head of Army Futures Command, said March 17 during remarks at the Association of the United States Army's virtual Global Force Next conference. A former US Army lieutenant colonel has warned of a possible "nuclear exchange" if the US breaks out into war with China. Provision of military hardware to Kyiv has depleted American stocks of some key military systems. At the last G20 foreign ministers' meeting, in Bali last summer, Lavrov walked out amid condemnations of Russia's war and its impact on global food and energy costs. We dont own cargo ships to force vital supplies through any blockade. "Rather, there are three scenarios that may be pursued in combination: "Invasion may be preceded by a blockade and firepower strikes. Its military planners already expect these to be overwhelmed by missiles in the opening hours of any conflict. In the recent parliamentary inquiry into war powers reform, the Department of Defence said it didn't think parliament should have authority to decide our involvement because that 'could undermine the confidence of our international partners as a reliable and timely security partner'. The US could no longer win a war against China - news On the military front, the United States should accelerate programs already underway to strengthen and disperse American forces in the Western Pacific to make them less vulnerable to attacks by China. After multiple clashes between Australia's regional partners and China, tensions are rising. Fundamentally, it would follow the strategic prescriptions of Sun Tzu in The Art of War. Which is why Dr Davis argues any conflict would likely focus on two strategic waterways the Bashi Channel and Miyako Strait that guard the China Seas. "But, in a large-scale war involving many hundreds of thousands of people in offensive and defensive operations, even before reaching the attendant prospect of reaching a nuclear war threshold, Australia is unlikely to make a substantial difference. Chinas airfields, naval ports and missile bases are all nearby. This is how we got here and what needs to change, 'Please confirm what Muslim refers to': Why Ali's birthday payment for his nephew was flagged by his bank, Kade was a fit 31-year-old when he died from a heart attack, Sherpa are world famous for their work, which is synonymous with their name. Surrounded: Disturbing report from Ukraine. But, his hawkish new boss, Defence Minister Peter Dutton, says war with China should not be discounted. The United States cannot win a war against China over Taiwan, four Australian defense experts have said in a series of interviews conducted by the . Any such war, he says, would primarily be a maritime conflict and would be on a scale unprecedented since World War II. Admiral Chris Barriemakes the point that its possible the impact on Australia of any war with China could be greater than any other participant because of Australias low population. He has served in a number of Australian government agencies and been a senior adviser to several Australian defense ministers. We hope that Australia will fully understand the high sensitivity of the Taiwan issue, adhere to our One China principle, be cautious in its words and actions, refrain from sending any wrong signals to the secessionist forces of Taiwan independence, a foreign ministry spokesperson said. He says given the rate at which Chinese forces are modernising and building capability and capacity "a Chinese victory over the US is the more likely outcome beyond 2035". Please try again later. A month earlier, Xi Jinping had told the Peoples Liberation Army: We should persist in using combat to guide our work; step up preparations for war.. Despite decades of warnings, our fuel refineries continue to close. Far fewer know their real story. Anyone can read what you share. If war were to break out, China can be expected to use this to disrupt communications and spread fake news and other disinformation. Chinese control of Taiwan would also strengthen Beijings ability to control the South China Sea by blocking the Luzon Strait and the Balintang and Babuyan channels, Control of Taiwan would make it easier for the PLA to reach Guam using long-range missiles and air power, extending its anti-access capabilities beyond the first island chain.. "Australia has always had a fascination about China, going well back in our history to pre-federation days. March 11, 2021 Ryan Morgan Last fall, the U.S. Air Force played out a war scenario with China, in which China begins its attack by deploying a biological weapon throughout the Indo-Pacific region. China Joins Russia in Blocking Consensus at G20 Meeting Over the War in In the previous column the analysesof Hugh White a former Deputy Secretary for Strategy and Intelligence in the Department of Defence and Admiral Chris Barrie who served as Australia's most senior military leader as Chief of the Defence Force from 1998 to 2002were explored. For a second day in a row Taiwan has reported a large-scale air force incursion, escalating tensions in the region. For the US, the bigger the coalition of countries joining it in any war, the better. "The fundamental assumption that we could win a war against China is wrong-headed and hawkish; it is also very risky. "I do not know whether Defence planners in Canberra would have made such estimates. It means mine laying by air and naval units, particularly submarines, blockading ports, inspecting maritime traffic including commercial shipping, intercepting aircraft, and attacking adversary military forces as necessary. The head of Russian mercenary group Wagner says his forces have practically encircled the crucial city of Bakhmut. Professor Clinton Fernandes is a former intelligence officer with the Australian Army Intelligence Corps and now Professor of International and Political Studies at the University of New South Wales. There are debates today about how reform of the UN is needed to deal with contemporary security challenges but not much progress has been made. If the US went to war with China, who would win? Mr. Xi has championed Chinas political warfare capabilities as a magic weapon.. "No one can be sure how that war would play out, because there have been no major maritime wars since Japan was defeated in 1945, but by far the most likely outcome would be a costly stalemate in which both sides lost heavily but neither side could secure a decisive, war-wining advantage. Korea was an unnecessary war, as were the conflicts in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. Australians could wake up one morning to the news that we are at war with China. "So, how would China prosecute the war? Admiral Chris Barrie says that with all the "overblown rhetoric" about the possibility of war against China he thinks there is a danger of forgetting that war should only ever be taken as the last means of resolving insurmountable differences between nation states. And the operating distances are enormous. The US military has been racking up decades of in-the-field experience, most recently with deployments in Afghanistan and Iraq and the Middle East. If Australia sleepwalks into a war with China, as many analysts fear is happening right now, then amid our strategic slumber we should at least ask one question: what would war with China mean for Australia? Wed like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Especially without comprehensive and numerous missile defence systems. "Practically this limits the sinews of war available to us: they would be insufficient. It runs between the Philippines and Taiwan. "Given the size of the Australia's forces and the logistic constraints on the US forces, a war against China would be a very hard war to fight. 'Nuclear': Grim prediction for what war with China would look like - Yahoo! Also, we do not have the equivalent of the Chilcott report to illuminate the story. We acknowledge Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples as the First Australians and Traditional Custodians of the lands where we live, learn, and work. Modern warships carry only a limited number of weapons. "Along with military mobilisation China would need to prepare its citizens and economy for a protracted conflict. Defeat the affirmative expeditionary purpose of the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). Nor can a military modelled in its image. It depends how it starts. The area around it would be highly contested and US war reserve stocks in the Pacific are earmarked for US forces that will assist Taiwan not for Taiwan itself. The U.S. economy is heavily dependent on Chinese resources and manufactured goods, including many with military applications, and American consumers rely on moderately priced Chinese-made imports for everything from electronics to furniture to shoes. "It may be argued that ANZUS would inevitably push Australia to war but we should not be lazy in coming [to] that conclusion. Australia's oldest running coal-fired power station is about to close. Its army is now deploying troops to Africa for peacekeeping missions that give first-hand experience in conflict zones after decades of relative peace. Russia, China, Britain, U.S. and France say no one can win nuclear war. China might compound this with electronic and probably some physical attacks on satellites or related infrastructure. "The scenario of a Chinese attack on Taiwan is often considered the catalyst but even in this case the reasons for, and management of, the breakdown in China-Taiwan relations in the lead up would be critical. A separatist democracy against a legitimate government? But rhetoric about the international rules-based order and Chinas failure to sign up to all its provisions seems to be "lecturing and hectoring" rather than working assiduously on overcoming differences of perspective. Find out more about our policy and your choices, including how to opt-out. Russia, China, Britain, U.S. and France say no one can win nuclear war It depends how it starts China and the United States are the great rivals in the competition to win the 21st century. "Now, as we approach reaching 10 billion people on earth, we see more difficult problems arising from this population burden. And Beijings new navy has been in almost a constant string of live fire exercises for the past year. Protests break out in Iran as more schoolgirls hospitalised after suspected poisoning. But there's also bad news ahead. Americas military power is very great, but Chinas military power, and especially its capacity to deny its air and sea approaches to US forces, has grown sharply, and is now formidable, Professor White warned. These are all Cold War allies of the US, but they have not had to think about war in the region since the 1970s. Major combat against the US means two nuclear-armed states fighting each other. "One can imagine the sociological fracture in Australia with funerals, commemorations, attacks on Australians of Chinese descent, the curtailing of any progressive economic reconstruction agenda for Australia.". In 2004 U.S. manufacturing output was more than twice Chinas; in 2021, Chinas output was double that of the United States. What would war with China look like for Australia? Part 1 "Firepower strikes described above would be accompanied by cyber operations to ensure information is blocked as well. China is a country located in Eastern Asia with an area of 9,596,961 km2 (land boundries: 22,457 km and costline 14,500 km).